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Singles Won The formal end of hostilities among the warring parties was signed on July 4, Despite the brief duration, however, the effects of the conflict have been traumatic and far-reaching. At the political level, there remains the risk of implosion of the nation-state. There is convergence of opinion that the political origins of the crisis are in longstanding grievances over exclusion and the legacy of the Ivoiritk ideology.
Although IvoiritC has been claimed to be a cultural construct, the use of it by political parties has been seen as a root cause of the present crisis. While the immediate causes of the conflict revolve around tensions in the army and the army mutiny that erupted in September , the hndarnental issues underlying the conflict include: the concept of IvoiritC and the related exclusionary policies, poor governance and corruption, poverty and inequality, 3.
Specifically, the concept of Ivoirite and the related exclusionary policies, ethnic and religious cleavages and discrimination have their roots in complex issues affecting: i nationality, ii identity, iii eligibility for presidential elections, iv land ownership, and v immigration and naturalization policies. On each of these issues, discriminatory laws and practices have bred grievances by large segments of the population.
Those grievances were then channeled into the open political and military conflict. In addition, poor governance and corruption, poverty and inequality, and external factors e. The conflict has had a large economic, social, and regional impact Table 2. It also came on top of three years of declining per capita income and rising poverty Figure 1. On the economic front, instead of growing in at the rate of percent as expected before the crisis, real output declined by 3 percent over this period.
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Modest recovery began to take place in with real annual growth averaging about 1. But continued uncertainty with occasional flare-ups of violence has limited recovery of investments and economic activity. Since , real GDP per capita has fallen cumulatively by about 14 percent. This has aggravated the already very high unemployment, especially among the youth.
The conflict stifled regional trade, transportation, and growth, and delayed regional integration. The social impact was massive: poverty increased from an official 38 percent just before the crisis to a probable percent after the crisis Table 2. Close to a million people are internally displaced IDPs or refugees.
Social services are failing the poor, especially in the north and west, and several hundred thousands of children are out of school. In addition, thousands of poor residents of the Abidjan s quartiers prkaires who lost their homes during conflict remain without permanent shelter. Social cohesion has also deteriorated considerably. Ethnic cleavages have contributed to the conflict but have also worsened as a result of it. In fact, social fragmentation has been identified by all major community-based NGOs as an obstacle to community driven reconstruction, not only in the West, where most ethnic tensions have lead to violence and human rights violations, but also in the North and South of the country.
To address this new issue in CBte d Ivoire, many NGOs have engaged in reconciliation activities, as a prerequisite for service delivery. Beyond the ethnic divide, discrimination related to identity and nationality was translated in the categorization of people living in CBte d Ivoire among the G autochtones H, nationals native of the place of residence, allochtones D, nationals native of a different place in CBte d Ivoire, and alloghes P, foreigners often in CBte d Ivoire for two or three generations. Source: World Bank Staff. Note: The linear line is a simple linear trend of the poverty series.
Poverty figure for is an estimate based on growth elasticity of poverty and the estimated number of internally displaced people. It is likely that it has increased as a result of the conflict and the large displaced population. The incidence is very high among the most vulnerable groups, especially in the areas separating the north and the south and along the main transport corridors.
I 0 , children aged 17 or younger have lost one or both parents to AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic. The conflict also resulted in worsening economic policy, particularly fiscal management. As the conflict erupted in September , fiscal discipline quickly deteriorated under pressure of conflict-related expenditures.
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With a sharp increase in expenditures equivalent to almost 3 percentage points of GDP , the overall fiscal balance in swung from a surplus to a deficit of 1. This trend continued during , with the fiscal gap continuously closed through the accumulation of additional arrears. Estimates for show the overall fiscal deficit of just below 2 percent of GDP.
At the same time, transparency deteriorated and expenditure execution relied increasingly on simplified procedures, bypassing standard processes of budget control and execution. In this environment, CGte d Ivoire s expenditure policy was increasingly focused on meeting critical priority expenditures wages and salaries, crisis-related expenditures at the expense of expenditures for achievement of longer term economic and social objectives. At end, the stock of arrears, domestic and external, was estimated at over 26 percent of GDP.
Governance and transparency deteriorated during the conflict Figures This was especially with respect to the cocodcoffee regulatory bodies and the Government s handling of some public-private sector contracts. Regarding the cocodcoffee sector, there has not been a full accounting of resources utilized by the coffeekocoa regulatory bodies.
Attempts to audit these bodies were met with inadequate cooperation and even outright hostility by some of these bodies, which claimed-on the grounds of being private entities-to have been partly exempt from government scrutiny. Regarding the contracts between the public and private sectors, there are major transparency issues e. An additional area of concern relates to the management of petroleum revenues which have assumed a growing importance as petroleum exports have increased.
Petroleum exports both crude and refined are currently about as important as traditional cocoa exports.
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With the coming on stream of new oil fields, these revenues are expected to increase significantly in the near term. The regional impact was significant, disrupting transport, trade and migration, raising the cost of doing business, and it also slowed regional integration initiatives. Table 2. The conflict also strengthened incentives for smuggling of cocoa and other goods within the region.
The impact varied across countries, with unexpected windfalls to some countries due, for example, to smuggling of cocoa to neighboring countries e. There was also a general slowdown of regional integration initiatives as reflected in the considerably worse status of WAEMU convergence criteria after the conflict Table 3. C8te d Ivoire now clearly satisfies only two of these criteria, on inflation and the current account.
Finally, since June , C8te d Ivoire has accumulated significant arrears on its debt obligations towards the Bank, and on November 1, , it fell into non-accrual status. The authorities have remained current on their obligations to the Fund. Under the envisioned financial framework, a portion of this borrowing would be covered by disbursement of the first tranche from the IMF Emergency Post-Conflict Arrangement about 30 billion CFAF with the balance covered by other expected disbursements of budget support. The financial framework agreed with the authorities for assumes full servicing of the World Bank debt service beginning July 1, There are also large arrears to other creditors Box 2.
As of end-december , there were large external arrears to all creditors, equivalent to about 18 percent of GDP, up from about 8 percent of GDP at end Over 60 percent of these arrears are owed to bilateral creditors Paris Club and another 12 percent to the African Development Bank AfDB , the remainder accounted for by London Club and, to a lesser extent, Bank arrears. Arrears to other creditors are expected to be cleared as part of a more generalized debt workout envisioned for. The program includes a number of structural reforms also agreed with the Bank in the areas of cocoa-coffee, financial and energy sectors as a basis for hrther structural measures to be covered in the Bank s Emergency Economic Recovery Credit EERC in the latter stage of the transition for details, see Section IV below.
The macroeconomic framework underlying the EPCA for aims at facilitating economic recovery in the context of reconciliation and reunification of the country.
With these confidence building measures, the supportive fiscal policy detailed below, and continued expansion in the petroleum capacity and the cocoa-coffee sector, modest growth of 1. The primary budget balance is projected to increase from 0. There is a large convergence of opinion that there are some necessary conditions for a successful peace process in C8te d Ivoire: The crisis can only be resolved through transparent, fair and open elections. The above goal cannot be reached without the prior reunification of the country.
The rebels are unlikely to agree to disarm before all the key laws to reverse the exclusionary policies are passed. The above sequencing, though not formalized in the Marcoussis Accord , was clearly implicit in the subsequent Accra and Pretoria Agreements see Annex 14 for details. The Marcoussis Peace Accord January has provided a general framework for the resolution of major issues of contention, but implementation has been slow. The Marcoussis Accord dealt with most contentious issues: citizenship rights, power sharing, land management etc.
It also envisaged the creation of the Government of National Reconciliation to implement the agreements. Under the Accord, controversial constitutional articles would be revised and President Gbagbo would remain in power until the end of his tenure in , but with shared power with a non-partisan, consensus Prime Minister Seydou Diarra, a former Prime Minister and a diplomat was subsequently chosen.