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The more substantive event involves trilateral discussions among Russia, Turkey and Iran, yet little has been revealed about their content. The very fact that Russia, Turkey, and Iran are driving the talks — with limited participation from the U. This is the result of military progress by the regime and its backers, declining U. For those assembled in Astana, a principal focus is on the faltering, partially-observed ceasefire negotiated by Russia and Turkey in late December after the regime recaptured the eastern half of Aleppo. In theory, the ceasefire covers all parts of the country controlled by non-jihadist opposition and pro-regime forces, while allowing continued attacks on the Islamic State and Fath al-Sham, a Salafi-jihadist group formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which until recently maintained official links to al-Qaeda.
In practice, the ceasefire has lowered violence in the north, but failed to prevent continued regime offensives against opposition-held areas in the countryside around Damascus in the south. Will it go further than it has done to date in pressing for a sustainable ceasefire capable of maintaining Turkish buy-in and adherence from non-jihadist rebels?
If it chooses to do so, can it secure regime and Iranian cooperation? Are there signs that these talks will go any better than the many failed international efforts over the course of the war? Russia, Iran and Turkey all have significant leverage on the ground in Syria, which could be used to dramatically reduce the level of violence. Unfortunately, key dynamics that contributed to the ultimate failure of previous partial ceasefires remain in place. There are still big questions concerning the positions of Damascus and Tehran. The regime seems intent to stay on the attack, including through using Aleppo as a springboard to take additional territory in north-western Idlib province.
The regime and Iran-backed militias pursue local rather than national ceasefires; they achieve the former on favourable terms by applying relentless collective punishment to opposition-held areas, then exploit the resulting calm to shift forces toward escalation elsewhere. These deals are a key component of their military strategy, allowing them to expand their control while minimising strain on their limited manpower. A national ceasefire, if implemented, would bar additional offensives against the non-jihadist opposition, and thus is not desirable from their perspective.
Indeed, regime and Iranian reluctance to forego opportunities for military advance was key to the erosion of the first Cessation of Hostilities in early It also helps explain why the current ceasefire has failed to take hold around Damascus, where eliminating remaining pockets of resistance is a top regime and Iranian priority. The rebel stronghold of Idlib province also contains what appear to be key regime and Iranian objectives — notably the town of Jisr al-Shaghour and surrounding areas adjacent to regime-held Lattakia province, and the Shiite villages of Foua and Kefraya.
Turkey would need to do more to incentivise rebel implementation and penalise violators among all opposition groups that it supports, including Ahrar al-Sham. Russia would need to do more to curb attacks by its allies, using their dependence on its air support as leverage. Bringing Iran on board is crucial, as it has ample tools with which to thwart the implementation of any deal achieved at its expense. Can there be an effective ceasefire without engaging elements of the jihadist opposition as well, if not the Islamic State, then possibly Fath al-Sham? Indeed, Fath al-Sham, a Salafi-jihadist faction linked to al-Qaeda and one of the strongest rebel forces, constitutes a huge obstacle to a sustained ceasefire.
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As in the previous Cessations of Hostilities, Fath al-Sham is excluded from this accord. In fact, in each ceasefire it has faced the prospect of becoming the primary victim, as any sustained drop in violence within such a framework is likely to highlight diverging interests between the jihadist group and the rest of the armed opposition, while allowing continued strikes against it in the meantime.
Moreover, the exclusion of Fath al-Sham provides a gigantic loophole for the regime and its allies to continue attacks, using the presence of Fath al-Sham fighters, real or imagined, as a pretext. This occurred during the early Cessation of Hostilities, and is currently happening in Wadi al-Barada, north-west of Damascus, which the regime has continued to attack throughout the ceasefire.
The combined spoiling potential of the regime, Iran including its militia proxies and Fath al-Sham is immense, and mutually reinforcing. Offensives by the former two are used as justification for attacks by the latter, and vice versa. Over time, repeated perceived violations of the ceasefire make it easy for Fath al-Sham to convince fellow rebels to resume attacks. We saw this during the early Cessation of Hostilities, when northern factions participating in the agreement initially abstained from offensives launched by Fath al-Sham then known as Jabhat al-Nusra , but later were persuaded to join them.
Any erosion of non-jihadist rebel participation in the ceasefire heightens eagerness in Damascus and Tehran to regain the military initiative, and may increase pressure on Russia to provide the requisite air support.
Planting hope: the Syrian refugee who developed virus-resistant super-seeds
In theory, if there is consensus on the priority of lowering violence in Syria, it would be better to attempt including Fath al-Sham in any ceasefire. If they accept, great; if they refuse, the task of isolating them from more pragmatic opposition elements might ease. In practice, however, there has been no such consensus, and achieving Russian, Iranian or even American buy-in for a deal including the group is unrealistic. Working within those constraints, the best alternative would be to include within the ceasefire, for a defined period of time, areas in which Fath al-Sham maintains some presence but does not enjoy unilateral control.
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A sustained halt of pro-regime attacks in these areas would allow Turkey and its opposition allies time to employ the space, resources and political capital needed to address the Fath al-Sham problem in their midst. What does the opposition stand to gain from attending these talks? The opposition enters the negotiations from a weak position.
The loss of eastern Aleppo had significant military and political ramifications, exacerbating divisions among and within its armed factions. That surge in tension threatens to split one of the most powerful rebel factions, Ahrar al-Sham, which has long straddled that faultline. The most significant of this in-fighting began on 23 January, when Fath al-Sham launched a pre-coordinated offensive on Jaish al-Mujahideen, a non-jihadist faction based west of Aleppo see below.
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They will want to strengthen and expand the ceasefire. The uneven implementation of the current ceasefire indicates that while Turkish-Russian engagement is high, it is insufficient to shift how the regime and Iran address their military priorities around Damascus. For now at least, Turkey has replaced the U. Turkey is the most important ally of the opposition, and its shift toward significant coordination with Russia has become a major bone of contention in intra-opposition wrangling.
Most of the factions complied, despite intense counter-pressure from Fath al-Sham. Do they stick together alongside Turkey, which has de-emphasised — though not entirely dropped — the goal of replacing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but which can help the opposition preserve the territory it still holds via a combination of continued military support and, potentially, negotiated arrangements with Russia?
But it offers them the best opportunity to maintain territory and political relevance. Alternatively, the non-jihadist opposition could reject the diplomatic tack Turkey is urging, and move closer to Fath al-Sham. This could spare them the embarrassment of bitter compromise, and lower the risks of an intra-rebel war. But it might also cost them their state support, and would almost certainly subject them to increased military pressure. With no ceasefire on the table, Russia would likely throw its weight behind expanded and intensified military offensives.
As the fate of eastern Aleppo made clear, that would entail immense bloodshed and destruction in opposition areas, resulting ultimately in further loss of territory. It will reduce the scope of territory they control and push their rebellion, by choice or default, into a strategy of long-term asymmetric insurgency.
Her work focuses on a quiet yet devastating development crisis. Climate-fuelled virus epidemics affecting fava beans, lentils and chickpeas are spreading from Syria to Ethiopia, gradually destroying the livelihoods of low-income populations. Finding a cure was urgent, Kumari explains. Hopeless farmers were seeing increasing levels of infected crops turning yellow and black.
The cause? For 10 years, Kumari worked to find a solution. Finally, she discovered a bean variety naturally resistant to one of the viruses: the fava bean necrotic yellow virus FBNYV. Only the fighting in Syria had moved. There was fighting and bombings everywhere. This includes the distribution of some 5, food vouchers; clothes sent to some 1, households; over households receiving rental support; and health-related assistance given to 2, vulnerable people.
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Non-food items handed out include kitchen kits, mattresses, battery-powered fans, solar-power lamps, water containers, carpets, detergents, and sanitary items. Some affected children are engaged in psychosocial support. They participate in activities that help them develop social skills, including hand washing, being respectful to each other and expressing feelings. Most of the children of Aleppo have lost years of study.
Caritas provides extra classes to help bring pupils up to speed. Caritas also gives assistance to public and private schools and to university students. Thanks to Caritas, more than children have accessed tutoring and more than received stationery supplies and school supplies.
Ibtisan, who lives in Aleppo, sends all five of her children to school. They all also attend a local Caritas centre that provides extra classes in English, Maths and Arabic. Conflict-affected families in Aleppo rebuild their lives and their communities. Now I am focusing on my work as a porter to be able to earn some money for our livelihood.